Friday Futures: Food

by Alanna Shaikh

category: Basics

Published August 08, 2009 @ 12:44PM PT

(No, not this kind of wheat rust. Photo credit: dave_7)

So far we're still defeating Malthus. We've managed to keep increasing food production enough to keep up with population growth and even make much of the globe fat.  I think we'll keep outrunning him in terms of calories. We'll continue to grow enough food in aggregate to support the weight of the world's population. In terms of the variety of our food, however, we're on the verge of a major contraction. Variety will shrink, and prices of food will go up enough that the even the middle class will see their food options substantially limited by price.

We're eating pretty much all the fish in the ocean. There will be many fewer kinds of fish available to consume, and they will be extremely expensive. Eating fish will be something you and I tell our grandchildren about. Only the rich will have any kind of access to seafood.

We're losing a lot of crop variety because of the industrialization of agriculture. Bananas are down to about two strains already, and other fruit will suffer similar genetic diminishment. Rare grains will get rarer. Vegetables that don't travel well are already on the verge of vanishing; that's not going to change. Non-GMO crops will be hard to get unless you grow them yourself. Fruits and vegetables will also get less nutritious over time, as they are developed to be attractive, travel well, and resistant to pesticides and pests, not to be packed with nutrition. GMO crops will keep us all eating, but not eating well.

Most non-rich people on the planet will have a choice of no more than 50 different foods in their diet, and not much more. I don't think most people will mind. Humans don't seem to be designed to desire much food variety.

Being dependent on this narrow range of crops will, however, put us at risk for losing food sources to new diseases. Wheat stem rust is already putting much of the world's food supply at risk. Another crop disease could happen just as easily, especially since diseases - even plant diseases - can now travel so fast around the globe.